Week 6 start or sit: Swift, Allen and Goedert get the nod

Start D'Andre Swift over Dameon Pierce. Start Braelon Allen over TreVeyon Henderson. Start Dallas Goedert over Mark Andrews. Those are the choices we would make in full PPR with four points per passing touchdown and no tight end premium. They are comparisons, not instructions to bench a better option on your own roster.

Sunday's injury list creates temptation as well as opportunity. A backup getting a start can help you. It does not automatically make him the best player for the slot. The useful question is who has the better combination of available work and scoring opportunity.

Swift over Pierce: high confidence

D'Andre Swift gets our strongest vote of these three. Kyle Monangai is out again, leaving Swift with the clearer lead role in Chicago. Our frozen full PPR mean is 21.02, against 12.18 for Dameon Pierce.

Pierce is a reasonable emergency answer to a running back shortage with Barkley unavailable. The mistake is promoting him past a healthy established lead option because his pickup feels more exciting. Philadelphia also has Carson Steele and newly signed Jaydon Blue available, so a starting designation does not promise every touch.

Expected outcome: Swift scores more PPR points. Condition: both are active and Chicago does not announce a meaningful Swift restriction. High confidence is editorial judgement, not a calculated probability or a guarantee of a touchdown.

Allen over Henderson: moderate confidence

Braelon Allen is our preference while Breece Hall remains ruled out. The frozen means are 15.89 for Allen and 7.42 for TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson carries an ankle question, while the Patriots' roster decisions point towards him being available rather than guarantee his normal workload.

Even clearance would not settle the comparison on its own. Allen has the more direct path to leading his backfield, while Henderson shares his with Rhamondre Stevenson. We would rather buy the useful work than guess that being active means an ankle issue has stopped mattering.

Expected outcome: Allen outscores Henderson. Condition: Hall remains out, Allen is active and Henderson plays without a newly announced lead role. If Henderson is inactive, the lineup decision becomes straightforward, but we will not count that as a successful competitive prediction in the later review.

Goedert over Andrews: moderate confidence

Dallas Goedert gets the nod over Mark Andrews, 11.86 to 8.53 in our frozen full PPR means. Both teams are dealing with quarterback disruption; do not make the choice by noticing only Philadelphia's problem. Goedert has the stronger current receiving estimate in this comparison.

This is a relative call. It does not require believing that McKee transforms the Eagles' offense, or that Andrews cannot catch a touchdown. A small number of scoring plays can still reverse it. If you have a stronger healthy tight end, keep that option in the conversation.

Expected outcome: Goedert outscores Andrews. Condition: both are active in their expected roles. Tight end premium and six point passing touchdowns should be checked in your own settings where relevant; this graphic uses neither adjustment.

Leave yourself a way out

The graphic contains mean forecasts, not floors, ceilings or promised scores. Henderson's figure includes availability uncertainty. Use the start or sit tool for your actual alternatives and the current rankings for your scoring. Confirm final inactives before the 1 p.m. Eastern games, midnight in Bangkok.

All In and Playoff Gamble: take the better immediate lineup without paying a permanent asset price for a temporary role. Soft Rebuild and Hard Rebuild: the start or sit choice stays the same; your willingness to trade for the replacement should differ. See our Hurts IR analysis for that distinction.

These calls are frozen for the postgame review. We will compare actual scores under the stated settings, disclose changed conditions and explain misses in a separate article. Injury redistribution already in the projections is not added again as an editorial bonus.

For the team context, open the Jets profile and Eagles profile.