Trade deadline: eight fantasy names most likely to move

Deals are already happening: Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston, J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, Cam Jurgens to Baltimore and Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas. Arizona said Harrison wasn't for sale a fortnight before it sold him, so read every "we're not trading him" below with that in mind.

Here are the eight fantasy names most likely to go next, in order, and what happens to everyone around them if they do. The verdict on each row is what to do with him now, before anything happens.

1. Brian Thomas Jr.: likely

Thomas didn't play a snap in the second half against Houston. He has nine catches for 105 yards in six games and has slipped to fourth in the Jaguars receiver room, behind Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter. Liam Coen calls his confidence in him week to week. ESPN's Dan Graziano says many around the league expect him to be traded, and names the Chiefs, Colts, 49ers and Raiders among teams linked to a receiver deal. Jacksonville says it isn't interested in moving him.

Why it makes sense: the Jaguars are 4-2 and need catches now, not a reclamation project. A buyer gets a 24-year-old on a cheap deal.

Fantasy: he's WR40 in dynasty, the same price as Ladd McConkey, but WR61 for the rest of this season. Any trade helps, because a team that pays a pick plays him. San Francisco, with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel both out this week and both past 30, would be the dream. Las Vegas, where Tre Tucker is the only established receiver, would hand him the most targets. In Jacksonville, Hunter gains most: he's already taking Thomas's snaps. The Jaguars' scoring barely moves, because Thomas hasn't been part of it.

2. Jonathan Taylor: live

The Colts are 2-4, lost to the previously winless Titans and fired general manager Chris Ballard on 19 October. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport says they could become sellers if they don't win soon, and that if Taylor is made available he wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle among the bidders, at a high price. The New York Post reports several teams are interested.

Why it makes sense: he signed for two years and $44 million in August, and the next general manager may not want a 27-year-old back on that money. Why it might not: $39 million of it is guaranteed, which makes him expensive to take on.

Fantasy: RB5 in dynasty and RB3 this season, worth about what Kenneth Walker III costs. In Seattle he stays a top-five back. The losers would be Emanuel Wilson and Zach Charbonnet, who'd go from sharing a starting job to backing one up. In Indianapolis, the work goes to Seth McGowan or DJ Giddens, and neither has shown he can handle 20 touches. We'd take about three points a game off the Colts without him; Seattle would gain about a point and a half.

↳ two games decide it: at Minnesota, then Jacksonville

3. Stefon Diggs: live

Washington is 1-4. Diggs signed a one-year deal in August and has 24 catches and four touchdowns in five games. ClutchPoints lists him among the Commanders' best trade chips.

Why it makes sense: a 32-year-old on a one-year deal is exactly what a team out of the race sells.

Fantasy: WR22 for the rest of this season but WR59 in dynasty, a pure contender's piece. A move to a playoff team is neutral at worst. If he goes, Antonio Williams becomes Jayden Daniels's first read; he's WR31 in dynasty and should be rostered everywhere. Washington would lose about two points a game.

4. Tony Pollard: coin flip

The Titans are 1-5 and Pollard is in the last year of his deal. Graziano put him on his list of ten likely movers. But Tom Pelissero reported on 11 October that Tennessee hasn't shown interest in moving him, and the team values his leadership.

Fantasy: RB26 this season and RB45 in dynasty, priced like MarShawn Lloyd. On a contender he'd be the second back, so his weekly value drops. The winner is the rookie Nicholas Singleton: RB32 in dynasty, almost no weekly value yet. Rebuilders should buy him before the deadline, not after. Tyjae Spears would take the early work. Tennessee already scores just 14 points a game; losing Pollard costs about another point.

5. Kirk Cousins: coin flip

Cousins has 14 touchdown passes in six games and the Raiders are 3-3, so this isn't a fire sale. It's about Fernando Mendoza, the first overall pick: NFL.com's Kevin Patra suggests he could start as early as Week 8 against the Jets. Fox Sports thinks Cousins could fetch a Day 2 pick from a team that loses its starter.

Fantasy: Cousins is QB18 this season and a backup anywhere else unless someone's starter is hurt. Mendoza is the story: QB26 in dynasty already, he'd become a superflex streamer overnight. Expect fewer than the 27 points a game Las Vegas scores now with a rookie under centre. Brock Bowers is fine either way, as the easy throw for any quarterback; Tucker is the one who loses.

6. Dallas Goedert: long shot

The Eagles are 2-4 and have lost four straight with Jalen Hurts out for the season. SI's Ed Kracz names Goedert among the Eagles who could go. But he hasn't practised this week with a knee problem, and nobody trades a pick for a tight end they can't see on the field.

Fantasy: TE10 this season and TE20 in dynasty, priced like Dalton Schultz. If he goes, Johnny Mundt and Grant Calcaterra split the job for now; Eli Stowers is the one with dynasty value (TE40) if he earns the snaps.

7. Saquon Barkley: long shot

The Athletic's Jonathan Jones reports that executives around the league have floated the idea of Philadelphia trading Barkley, and the Athletic's Zach Berman thinks it would be a tough call. Two things stand in the way: a hamstring that has cost him two games (he was limited in practice this week), and his contract. A to Z Sports works out that a trade now would roughly double his 2027 cap charge, to over $26.5 million.

Fantasy: RB28 this season and RB38 in dynasty, the same price as Josh Jacobs. A healthy Barkley on a contender (ESPN's Ben Solak sketched a deal with Houston) would be a strong All In buy. In Philadelphia, Dameon Pierce would lead a committee with Tank Bigsby.

8. Quentin Johnston: long shot

The Chargers are 0-6. PFF lists Johnston among its 15 deadline candidates: eight catches on 22 targets this season, and under contract until 2028.

Fantasy: WR45 in dynasty, priced like Travis Hunter. He's young enough that a fresh start is a buy-low. McConkey gains most if he goes.

Also on the board

Jerry Jeudy is third in Cleveland behind Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion; Fox Sports lists him, but he isn't worth chasing anywhere. Calvin Ridley's role in Tennessee has all but gone. Anthony Richardson asked for a trade in the offseason; he's QB32 in dynasty and only matters in superflex.