Brock Purdy should be NFL MVP: our early-season verdict

Brock Purdy should be the NFL MVP if the ballot closed today. The 49ers quarterback combines touchdown production, efficient passing and an unbeaten team better than the challengers examined here. Josh Allen is the closest alternative. Purdy is also our tentative pick to win at season's end, although four games establish a lead, not an award.

This is our editorial judgement through Week 4 of the 2026 regular season, published on 8 October before Week 5 results. We weigh individual production, efficiency, ball security and contribution to team success. Wins provide context; they do not belong to the quarterback alone. The evidence below comes from the site's season totals and game logs, with original graphics frozen at publication.

Why Purdy gets the first vote

Purdy has completed 69.9% of his passes. More telling than a single spectacular afternoon is the shape of his game log: at least two passing touchdowns in every appearance, and no interception after the opener. San Francisco has scored at least 24 points in each win. That is a repeatable contribution to a winning offence, even allowing for an excellent supporting cast.

The case is not that he does everything best. Lamar Jackson gains more yards per attempt in our comparison. Allen produces more combined passing and rushing touchdowns. Purdy's advantage is the balance: he creates touchdowns through the air, avoids interceptions and keeps San Francisco winning. His rushing contribution adds another way to help the offence.

There is a fair objection: the 49ers' opponents are a combined 5–11 in the site's standings. That is a small and imperfect strength-of-schedule check, not an opponent-adjusted rating. Purdy still needs to sustain this standard against tougher opposition. We also cannot separate his work from blocking, scheme and yards created by receivers using these box scores alone.

Allen is second, with a credible argument for first

Josh Allen makes the strongest challenge because his scoring comes in two forms. A rushing touchdown is a real contribution to winning football. It deserves credit in an MVP discussion regardless of how a fantasy league scores it.

The concern is his last two games: three interceptions, followed by Buffalo's first defeat against New England. Purdy has been cleaner across that stretch. Allen can reverse our order by maintaining the rushing threat while restoring the passing consistency of his opening two wins. We do not assume his current rushing touchdown rate continues for a full season.

Jackson and Mahomes complete the leading quarterback group

Lamar Jackson is third on our early ballot. His efficiency is the strongest reason to disagree with our winner. Baltimore is 3–1 and he has the largest rushing yardage total among these five quarterbacks. Purdy's greater passing scoring output breaks the tie for us; it does not erase Jackson's case.

Patrick Mahomes is fourth. Kansas City's unbeaten record and his passing production deserve serious consideration. He trails Purdy on passing efficiency and has less rushing production than Allen or Jackson. The Chiefs also have a substantial running-back contribution, which makes attributing all their success to Mahomes especially unconvincing.

Outside that group, Dak Prescott has accurate, careful passing but Dallas is 2–2. Bryce Young has 1,268 passing yards, yet Carolina is also 2–2 and his 7.83 yards per attempt trails Purdy. Volume keeps him in the discussion; it does not settle it.

An overall award leaves room for non-quarterbacks

Kenneth Walker III takes our fifth place. His 6.17 yards per carry and two games above 170 rushing yards give him an individual case beyond Kansas City's record. He needs to remain central to the Chiefs' success over a longer sample to overtake the leading quarterbacks.

Bijan Robinson is close on scrimmage production. Jahmyr Gibbs has the scoring edge in this comparison. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 32 catches on 42 targets show a sustained receiving role for a 3–1 Seattle team. None should be dismissed simply because of position. Our current preference is Walker's combination of efficiency, workload and team results.

Defenders are eligible too. This comparison does not contain a complete pressure, coverage and defensive-impact dataset, so it cannot establish a defensible defensive frontrunner. That limits the ballot's evidence; it is not a claim that defensive value is unimportant.

Our winner, and what could change it

Purdy gets our first-place vote now and our tentative full-season pick. Allen is the player most likely to change that call. Jackson can do it by pairing his efficiency with sustained scoring; Mahomes can do it by making his individual production as commanding as Kansas City's record.

The official AP MVP ballot ranks five candidates and is decided on the regular season, before the playoffs. Our ordering is an independent early-season opinion, not an official vote or a probability model. We will judge the remaining games rather than turn four weeks into a straight-line season forecast.

All figures and graphics above are publication snapshots. The linked profiles remain live. This award analysis adds no separate fantasy value or projection adjustment: the underlying performance is already counted by the site.