Week 7 start or sit: Goff, Warren and Freiermuth get the nod

Start Jared Goff over Patrick Mahomes. Start Jaylen Warren over Braelon Allen. Start Pat Freiermuth over Dallas Goedert. Those are our choices for these specific roster decisions in full PPR, with four points per passing touchdown and no tight end premium. They are not instructions to bench a better option elsewhere on your team.

Goff over Mahomes: moderate confidence

Goff gets Green Bay; Mahomes visits Seattle. Our frozen means favour Goff, 18.13 to 14.12. We would choose the stronger current projection rather than let the bigger career reputation make the weekly decision. Mahomes remains capable of an excellent game. This is a lineup preference, not a dynasty sell signal.

Expected outcome: Goff outscores Mahomes. Condition: both start without a material late limitation. If either is scratched, record the comparison as unavailable rather than a successful competitive prediction. Moderate confidence is editorial judgement, not a calculated win probability.

Warren over Allen: moderate confidence

Warren's projected workload against New Orleans gives him the advantage. The frozen PPR means are 20.52 and 11.96. Hall's questionable tag creates a second uncertainty in Allen's case: a Hall return can shrink the role, while another absence would make Allen much more useful.

Pittsburgh plays New Orleans in Paris before the main Sunday slate. Check Warren's active status before that earlier kickoff. If he is available, we prefer banking the stronger option to waiting for the Jets news. If Hall is ruled out before Paris and Allen gets a clearly improved workload estimate, rerun the comparison in the live tool. The published recommendation remains frozen for later review.

Expected outcome: Warren outscores Allen. Condition: both are active; Hall's eventual status must be recorded alongside the result. Do not retrospectively pretend the Sunday decision had information we did not have on Saturday.

Freiermuth over Goedert: moderate confidence

The frozen means favour Freiermuth, 11.75 to 8.34. Goedert missed the Eagles' first two practices with a knee issue, and his game is on Monday. That is a poor setup if you have a usable tight end in the earlier Paris game and no Monday reserve.

Expected outcome: Freiermuth outscores Goedert if both play. Condition: Freiermuth is active and no new restriction emerges. If Goedert is inactive, the practical advice to use Freiermuth may still help, but we will not count it as a won head to head production prediction.

Save the call and its settings

These are availability weighted model means from the Week 7 file, not the newer default file that already lists Week 8. The injury sheet explains the unresolved cases. Use live start/sit for your scoring and latest news, and check that its week label matches your decision. We will grade these exact calls later, using the same scoring and conditions.