Playoff Gamble buy or sell: Darnold over a Wilson splurge

Buy Sam Darnold if the deal fills an empty superflex spot using a receiver who isn't needed in your lineup. Sell Emanuel Wilson if someone prices his Seattle opportunity like a permanent job. A Playoff Gamble team needs a better starting team next week, not a prettier collection of names.

Darnold: pay with the receiver you can actually spare

• You give: Xavier Worthy and a projected early 2027 second.
• You get: Sam Darnold.

This suits a receiver rich team whose second quarterback slot is empty or dependent on a temporary backup. Worthy leaves the bench and Darnold fills that vacancy. Approach a Soft Rebuild manager who has two other starting quarterbacks but needs younger receivers and draft capital. Selling their third quarterback can help both rosters; asking them to surrender their only QB2 is a different proposition.

Darnold's 257 passing yards and one touchdown against Kansas City are useful, but the interception belongs in the decision too. You're buying a startable option for a roster gap, not paying to turn him into an elite quarterback.

Alternative: give Luther Burden III and a projected late 2027 second; get Darnold. This is the higher concession for a seller who prefers Burden to Worthy. Only consider it if Burden is your fourth or fifth receiver, your other starting positions are sound, and Darnold solves the clearest route to weekly points. Otherwise keep Burden. Don't put both young receivers in the same offer.

If neither receiver is spare, use waiver or backup options and wait. Selling a starting receiver only to open another weak spot defeats the purpose.

Goff: upgrade a starter instead of shopping for a backup

• You give: Sam Darnold and a projected mid 2027 first.
• You get: Jared Goff.

This is a separate route for someone who already owns Darnold and wants a stronger quarterback option. Approach a Hard Rebuild manager: they retain a starting quarterback and gain a first, while you keep the same number of starting quarterbacks and improve the spot. Don't make this offer to a Goff manager who is also chasing this year's title and has no reason to downgrade.

Use an acquired first whose outlook you can assess. Keep your own first if missing the playoffs could send it early. If the seller demands a second first, stop: this is an upgrade purchase, not permission to mortgage the roster.

Wilson: a bridge has a bridge price

• Buying offer: give a projected late 2027 third; get Emanuel Wilson.
• Selling target: give Emanuel Wilson; get a projected late 2027 second.

These are an opening bid and an asking price for different negotiations. The second is an ambitious ask for the immediate opening, not the minimum return Wilson is certain to fetch. The cheap purchase fits when Wilson can replace a zero now and the seller is rebuilding. The sale fits when another contender needs a running back urgently and can spare the second. A third is the decision in between: keep Wilson if those immediate starts are essential to your playoff chances; sell if he is depth you don't use.

His 24 carries against Kansas City matter. So does the possibility of Charbonnet returning. Don't add a second to the buying offer just because the seller enjoyed the touchdown.

Protect the route into the playoffs

Keep your own potentially early first. Keep both starting quarterbacks unless the trade returns a usable replacement. Keep the last reliable receiver who fills your weekly lineup. Don't carry out the Darnold purchase and the Goff upgrade as a two deal rescue plan before checking the total cost.

A team with holes at several positions may need to sell Wilson and preserve its picks instead. Being close to sixth place doesn't make every purchase worthwhile.

↳ Expanded 26 October with complete trades and roster fit.

The other win windows

All In · Soft Rebuild · Hard Rebuild